Jamaica.

Fiscal anchor

Public debt to 60% of GDP, legislated in Part VII of the Financial Administration and Audit Act, originally by end-March 2028. The fiscal rules were SUSPENDED in December 2025 under FRL Article 48C after Hurricane Melissa and remain suspended to end-March 2027. The Government states an intention of 60% by end-FY2029/30, but no new timeline has been legislated.

IMF programme status

No active arrangement. The Precautionary and Liquidity Line expired 28 February 2025 and the RSF concluded September 2024. A Rapid Financing Instrument purchase of SDR 306.32m (US$415m, 80% of quota) was approved 16 January 2026 under the large natural disaster window (PR 26/008) after Hurricane Melissa: an outright purchase, not a programme, with no reviews or conditionality.

Notes

ISSUE No. 05: checked, no figure moved, and still FLAGGED. On 8 October 2026 the IMF country page for Jamaica still gave 12 June 2025 as the last Article IV Executive Board consultation, with no 2026 mission statement listed, so the most recent full Fund assessment in this row is now sixteen months old. The Ministry of Finance resources page carries no supplementary estimates, interim Fiscal Policy Paper or debt report dated after the Estimates of April 2026, so the FY2026/27 primary balance of 0.5% stands. Issue No. 04 context follows. ISSUE No. 04: checked, no figure moved. Nothing published between 8 August and 8 September 2026 revises the debt, primary balance or growth figures on this row. FLAGGED: Jamaica's Article IV cycle is now the one to watch on timing. The 2025 consultation concluded on 25 June 2025 and no 2026 Article IV staff report or Board conclusion had been published as at 8 September 2026, which puts the cycle roughly three months past its recent pattern. That is readily explained by Hurricane Melissa and the Rapid Financing Instrument purchase of January 2026, which took Fund attention and reset the fiscal baseline, but it means the most recent full IMF assessment of Jamaica in this row is fifteen months old. The Fiscal Policy Paper FY2026/27 of February 2026 remains the most current authoritative fiscal document. Earlier context follows. The primary balance shown, 0.5% of GDP, is the FY2026/27 projection in Table 3J of the Fiscal Policy Paper FY2026/27 (As Passed, February 2026), on a central government fiscal year basis. The full series there reads 5.2% in FY2023/24 (actual), 5.4% in FY2024/25 (provisional), 1.3% in FY2025/26 (estimate) and 0.5% in FY2026/27, so what looks like a collapse in the surplus is Hurricane Melissa passing through the accounts rather than a change of fiscal stance. Before the storm, IMF staff had projected a surplus above 5% of GDP sustained through FY2025/26, which would have brought public debt toward 65% of GDP, the lowest in 25 years. Hurricane Melissa (Category 5, October 2025), with reconstruction costs estimated near 41% of GDP, reset the trajectory: the IMF World Economic Outlook (April 2026) now puts general government debt at 65.8% of GDP in 2026 and projects real GDP to contract by 1.2% in 2026 (from a positive 2025) before returning to growth. The Government of Jamaica Fiscal Policy Paper FY2026/27 (As Passed, February 2026) reports on a fiscal-year and central-government basis: debt stock 62.4% of GDP in FY2024/25 (actual), 68.9% in FY2025/26 (estimated outturn), and 65.7% in FY2026/27 (projection), with a central government primary balance of 5.4%, 1.3%, and 0.5% of GDP across the same years. The real economy is now estimated to contract by 4.5% in FY2025/26 on Hurricane Melissa effects. The headline figures in this Tracker remain on the IMF WEO April 2026 calendar-year general-government basis for cross-country comparability. The FY-basis figures are footnoted here. The earlier IMF F&D commentary projected debt nearer 68%. The WEO figure is the more current and is used as the headline.