Guyana.

Fiscal anchor

No debt-ratio anchor or fiscal rule. Borrowing is bounded by statutory nominal ceilings, the External Loans Act and Public Loan Act limits each raised to G$1.5 trillion in 2024 (roughly 32% of 2024 GDP each), and oil revenue use is governed by the NRF Act 2021 withdrawal rule.

IMF programme status

No active programme, surveillance only

Notes

ISSUE No. 05 UPDATE. Growth for 2026 moves from 16.2% to 20.8%. The Ministry of Finance Mid-Year Report 2026, posted in mid-September 2026, revises the Government's 2026 projection to 20.8% overall and 10.2% for the non-oil economy (paragraph 3.2, printed page 7, and Appendix A1, printed page 77), against 16.2% and 10.8% in the Budget Speech of January. The first half of 2026 grew 33.3% on the year, and the report expects the fifth production vessel, Errea Wittu, to start in the final quarter. The headline now carries the Government's figure because it is more recent than the April WEO, and the WEO 16.2% becomes the second reading. Debt did not move. The same report puts public and publicly guaranteed debt at US$8,573.1 million at end-June 2026 (paragraph 3.57) and the end-2025 ratio at 28.6% of GDP (paragraph 4.14), and it prints no ratio for 2026. The primary balance is STILL NULL, and the reason has changed. Appendix E1 (printed page 82) prints a central government primary balance of minus G$195,746.4 million for 2026 revised, against minus G$144,750.5 million for 2025. That line equals revenue excluding Natural Resource Fund withdrawals less non-interest current expenditure, to the decimal for 2025 and within rounding for 2026, so it excludes both the oil fund transfer and all capital spending. It is a different measure from the primary balance this tracker carries, and the report prints no nominal GDP to scale it by. The IMF country page still showed 2 May 2025 as the last Article IV Board conclusion on 8 October 2026, so the 2026 consultation, whose mission ended on 31 July, remains open. Issue No. 04 context follows. ISSUE No. 04: checked, no figure moved, and the primary balance is still null. This remains the one deliberate gap in the tracker and both of the documents that would close it are pending. The Ministry of Finance Mid-Year Report 2026 had not been published as at 8 September 2026. The 2025 edition was posted in September 2025 and the 2024 edition in August 2024, so it is due within weeks. The IMF Executive Board had not concluded the 2026 Article IV consultation, whose staff mission ran 20 to 31 July 2026 and issued a concluding statement but no fiscal table. A primary balance near enough could be reconstructed by netting the Budget Speech 2026 aggregates, and this dataset does not do that: an unpublished figure stays null. Earlier context follows. Total public and publicly guaranteed debt was US$6.80bn at end-June 2025, equal to 27.6% of 2024 GDP (Guyana Mid-Year Report 2025). The IMF WEO general government series puts the 2025 ratio at 28.6%, within the same band. Central government debt fell to 24.3% in 2024 from 47.4% in 2020 as nominal GDP expanded with the oil cycle. The IMF–WB DSA (April 2025) rates the risk of debt distress as low. The IMF WEO (April 2026) projects real GDP growth of 16.2% in 2026 (down from 19.3% in 2025). Earlier in-year commentary cited as high as 23%. The hydrocarbon trajectory makes regional averages misleading, so Guyana is reported separately and excluded from the regional primary-balance aggregate.