Saint Kitts and Nevis.

Fiscal anchor

ECCU regional benchmark: public debt to 60% of GDP by 2035. A stated objective only, not legally binding: Saint Kitts and Nevis is one of the few ECCU members with no fiscal framework in law.

IMF programme status

No active programme, Article IV surveillance

Notes

ISSUE No. 05: checked, no figure moved. No IMF, Eastern Caribbean Central Bank or Ministry of Finance publication on Saint Kitts and Nevis dated between 8 September and 8 October 2026 was found. ISSUE No. 04 UPDATE. No headline figure on this row moved, but the second readings were all replaced. The Eastern Caribbean Central Bank published its Economic and Financial Review June 2026 on 4 September 2026, and it revises 2025 sharply: the primary deficit for 2025 is now put at 11.5% of GDP against the 7.4% in its previous report, a nominal difference of $128.5m, driven by capital spending of 7.5% of GDP against an initial estimate of 5.3%. The ECCB now projects a 2026 primary deficit of 7.0% of GDP, growth of 2.3% in both 2026 and 2027 (cut from 3.0%), and total public sector debt rising from 54.5% of GDP in 2025 to 60.6% in 2026 and 64.9% in 2027. It judges that without fiscal adjustment the 60% target for 2035 will not be attained, and puts the required adjustment at about 0.9% of GDP a year from 2027. The three second readings from the December 2025 Budget Address that this row carried through Issue No. 03 (debt 58.7% at end-2025, growth 2.8% for 2026) are superseded by these and have been replaced. Earlier context follows. Public debt is projected to cross the 60% regional benchmark in 2026, reaching 64.0% (IMF CR 2026/093 Table 2, 7 May 2026), up from 58.4% in 2025. The 64.0% figure supersedes the 63.6% carried in the March 2026 staff concluding statement, and the whole forward path was revised up with it. Net debt on the same table is 61.0% for 2026, so the benchmark is crossed on both measures but by very different margins. The primary balance shown, -7.5% of GDP, is the 2026 projection in Table 2 of that report, matching the year of the debt figure beside it. The 2025 estimate was -10.4%. Excluding CBI receipts and transfers to banks, the adjusted primary balance is far weaker: -15.7% in 2025 and -13.5% in 2026. The gap between the two lines is the measure of how much of the fiscal position rests on citizenship-by-investment receipts. The fiscal deficit is estimated at 11.7% of GDP in 2025. Persistently low CBI revenue keeps deficits elevated over the medium term. Real GDP growth is estimated at 1.5% in 2025 per the IMF 2026 Article IV staff report (PR 26/143, 7 May 2026), unchanged from the March 2026 concluding statement. Growth is projected to rebound to 2.0% in 2026, revised down from the 2.2% indicated in March on construction, agriculture, renewable energy projects, and continued tourism recovery.