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Asokore Beckles

Economist. Builder. Caribbean Leader.

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Latest · Brief No. 20The Ratio and the Revenue

Economist
Essays, the Bridgetown Brief, and academic research on fiscal policy and small island economies.
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Builder
A working portfolio across property, investment, extractives, events, and public equities.
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Caribbean Leader
Senior public-sector economist. Regional labour executive. Board and committee service across the Caribbean.
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Fiscal Monitor · Issue No. 03

Caribbean public debt, on one page.

August 2026 issue

Rechecked monthly

CC BY 4.0 · Free to cite

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Regional median: 69.0%
Highest burden: 120.1%
Below the 60% benchmark: 1 of 11

This issue

Ten of eleven CARICOM economies tracked here sit above the 60% ECCU benchmark. Guyana is the only one below, and only on oil. Saint Vincent and the Grenadines and Dominica carry the heaviest burdens, both still absorbing the fiscal weight of the 2024 hurricane season. Barbados has brought its ratio to 93.7% at end-June 2026, though part of that fall is a GDP rebasing rather than repayment, so the improvement is smaller than the headline drop suggests. The sharpest move this issue is Grenada, where the government’s own new fiscal framework puts the 2026 primary deficit at 7.9% of GDP, against the 3.5% Fund staff had projected. Four of the eleven rows moved. The other seven were checked against fresh primary sources and did not.

Public debt to GDP · latest reported year

Above 60% benchmark
At or below
60% ECCU anchor

Sources: IMF WEO April 2026 · Article IV 2025–2026 · Central Bank of Barbados · CDB CERO 2025–2026

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11 of 11 economies populated

Writing

Latest Thinking.

Essays and short commentary on Caribbean economies, fiscal policy, and data-led development.

Bridgetown Brief

The Ratio and the Revenue

31 August 20263-min read

Guyana carries the lowest public debt ratio in the Caribbean, 28.6 per cent of GDP in 2025, and the Inter-American Development Bank calls it highly sustainable. The same report puts central government debt measured against revenue at 151 per cent in 2024 and a forecast 181.9 per cent in 2026. Both readings are correct. GDP is growing faster than the state can tax it, so the denominator that flatters Guyana is not the denominator that services the debt. A net oil exporter that still buys 90 per cent of its energy abroad is now holding down fuel and electricity prices, and the primary deficit is widening to pay for it.

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Bridgetown Brief

The Buffer and the Dividend

24 August 20264-min read

Barbados’ banks had their best year for asset quality in over a decade in 2025. The non-performing loan ratio fell to 3.6 per cent and credit grew 6.3 per cent, the fastest pace in more than ten years. In the same year the capital adequacy ratio fell from 21.2 per cent to 19.0 per cent. The Central Bank’s own reading is that the fall in capital was a distribution rather than a deterioration in earnings. The buffer was not eroded. It was paid out.

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Bridgetown Brief

Ahead of Last Year, Behind the Plan

17 August 20263-min read

Jamaica collected J$264.77 billion in the first quarter of FY2026/27, up 14.0 per cent on the same quarter a year earlier. Against its own budget the same figure is J$28.72 billion short. A year ago that quarter landed within J$16.7 million of plan. The deficit stayed near its target only because spending came in J$19.49 billion light, and almost none of that restraint fell on the wage bill. Capital spending rose 55.8 per cent year on year and still finished 22.0 per cent below what the budget asked. Ahead of last year is not the same as on plan.

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