asokore.com

Asokore Beckles

Economist. Builder. Caribbean Leader.

Read my work About me

Latest · Brief No. 26The Surplus and the Interest Bill

Economist
Essays, the Bridgetown Brief, and academic research on fiscal policy and small island economies.
Read the research
Builder
A working portfolio across property, investment, extractives, events, and public equities.
See the ventures
Caribbean Leader
Senior public-sector economist. Regional labour executive. Board and committee service across the Caribbean.
See the service record

Fiscal Monitor · Issue No. 05

Caribbean public debt, on one page.

October 2026 issue

Rechecked monthly

CC BY 4.0 · Free to cite

Open the full Tracker

Regional median: 69.0%
Highest burden: 120.1%
Below the 60% benchmark: 1 of 11

This issue

Ten of eleven CARICOM economies tracked here sit above the 60% ECCU benchmark. Guyana is the only one below, and only on oil. One headline figure moved this issue. Guyana's Ministry of Finance raised its 2026 growth projection in the Mid-Year Report from 16.2% to 20.8%, after the first half of the year grew 33.3% and with a fifth oil production vessel due before December, and that figure now leads the row with the IMF's April projection kept beside it. The same report prints a line labelled primary balance, but on a narrower basis that leaves out capital spending and the oil fund transfer, so Guyana's primary balance stays empty until the IMF publishes one. The other ten rows were checked and did not move. Two sources that could move several of them land within days of this issue: the Trinidad and Tobago budget on 12 October and the IMF's October World Economic Outlook on 13 October.

Public debt to GDP · latest reported year

Above 60% benchmark
At or below
60% ECCU anchor

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines120.1%
Dominica98.3%
Barbados93.7%
Saint Lucia77.5%
The Bahamas70.2%
Grenada69.0%
Trinidad and Tobago67.8%
Antigua and Barbuda66.5%
Jamaica65.8%
Saint Kitts and Nevis64.0%
Guyana29.2%

Debt to GDP figures

Public debt as a share of GDP for each economy, with the year each figure refers to.
Economy	Debt to GDP	Year
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines	120.1%	2026
Dominica	98.3%	2026
Barbados	93.7%	2026
Saint Lucia	77.5%	2026
The Bahamas	70.2%	2026
Grenada	69.0%	2026
Trinidad and Tobago	67.8%	2026
Antigua and Barbuda	66.5%	2026
Jamaica	65.8%	2026
Saint Kitts and Nevis	64.0%	2026
Guyana	29.2%	2026

Sources: IMF WEO April 2026 · Article IV 2025–2026 · Central Bank of Barbados · CDB CERO 2025–2026

Open the full Tracker

11 of 11 economies populated

Writing

Latest Thinking.

Essays and short commentary on Caribbean economies, fiscal policy, and data-led development.

Bridgetown Brief

The Surplus and the Interest Bill

12 October 20263-min read

The Dominican Republic's 2027 budget bill, sent to Congress on 23 September, plans a central government deficit of 3.4 per cent of GDP. Before interest it shows a surplus of RD$24,045.6 million, 0.3 per cent of GDP. Interest takes RD$351,327.1 million, 3.7 per cent of GDP, so the government would borrow to pay its creditors and nothing else. The fiscal risk report bound into the same bill finds that budgeted primary balances were over-forecast by 0.62 per cent of GDP on average between 2009 and 2019, and by 0.48 per cent between 2021 and 2025. A week after the bill went in, the central bank raised its policy rate for the first time since October 2022.

Read

Bridgetown Brief

The Rate and the Rebuild

5 October 20264-min read

The Bank of Jamaica raised its policy rate to 6.0 per cent from 29 September, and one of its reasons is government recovery spending. The Independent Fiscal Commission's review of April to June shows that spending running well behind plan. Only J$27.6 billion of a J$184.9 billion capital budget was spent in the quarter, J$17.3 billion below budget, and the Commission expects the reconstruction authority's J$30 billion to have minimal impact in FY2026/27. Pay is the spending that is coming. A wage agreement signed on 27 August raises public sector pay 5.0 per cent in each of FY2026/27 and FY2027/28, against the 2.5 per cent the budget assumed, and the Commission cannot cost it.

Read

Bridgetown Brief

The Fund and the Bills

28 September 20263-min read

Guyana's Mid-Year Report 2026 now expects the government to take 84 lifts of profit oil this year, against the 40 its budget assumed. Petroleum deposits into the Natural Resource Fund are projected at US$6,497.6 million, 136.8 per cent above the budget estimate. The withdrawal the budget may draw from the fund is unchanged at US$2,374.3 million. The windfall is being saved and the extra spending is being borrowed. Appendix E1 revises net domestic borrowing for 2026 from G$150,642.9 million to G$205,532.1 million, in a domestic debt stock that is 84.4 per cent Treasury bills.

Read

All writing →Get the Brief by email →

For institutions

Governments, multilaterals, and capital partners.

The work operates at two levels. For ministries of finance, central banks, and multilateral institutions: fiscal risk, debt sustainability, and macro-fiscal advisory to institutional standard. For development finance institutions and investment partners: there is scope for co-investment, joint ventures, and development partnerships in real estate, energy, agribusiness, and infrastructure across the Caribbean, the Americas, and Asia. Confidential intake on request.

Fiscal risk and debt sustainability work
Co-investment and joint ventures
Sustainable finance and Blue-Green Token
Board, advisory, and committee roles

Open an enquiry →

How to engage

Three ways to work together.

Senior public-sector economic analysis, board and advisory work across Caribbean institutions, and the writing. If you are working on any of the below, say hello.