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Asokore Beckles
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Data product · Issue No. 02 · July 2026

The Caribbean Debt Tracker.

Eleven economies. Five metrics. One curated table on Caribbean public debt sustainability, re-verified against its primary sources every month. Issue No. 02 draws on the April 2026 WEO and the most recent Article IV consultations.

11 of 11 economies populatedCC BY 4.0 · Free to read, free to cite

Corrections to this issue

Six primary balance figures were corrected. Jamaica had been carrying 2.3% of GDP against a source that does not exist in the row; Table 3J of the Fiscal Policy Paper FY2026/27 gives 0.5% for FY2026/27, and no year in that series holds 2.3%. Grenada had -3.1%, which could not be traced to any published table; the Article IV table gives -3.2% for 2025 and -3.5% for 2026, and Grenada growth moves from 3.1% to 3.2% on the same table. The remaining four, Saint Vincent, Saint Kitts, the Bahamas and Trinidad, were real figures taken from the most recent estimate column while the rest of the row was dated a year later; each now takes the year its debt figure names. Saint Lucia lost an opening claim of a 2.6% deficit and 74.5% debt for 2024, which no cited source supports, and its primary balance moves from the FY2024 actual to the FY2026 projection.

Six rows now declare the coverage basis on which their debt figure is measured, where previously the number was shown bare. Trinidad was the starkest: 67.8% central government against the IMF general government 84.2% for the same date, a sixteen-point gap a reader had no way to explain. Five source links were also repointed at the documents they name rather than at a publisher homepage or a country hub, and a claimed Guyana debt distress rating was removed as that rating is not issued for Guyana.

Corrections to earlier issues

Issue No. 01 ·

Barbados was corrected from 102.5% to 94.6%. The row had been leading with gross public sector debt from IMF Country Report 25/153, on the reasoning that the BERT 60% anchor is defined on that measure. In practice the figure was a year stale and roughly eight points above every current published series, and it put this tracker in contradiction with the Bridgetown Brief, which has consistently cited the Central Bank of Barbados ratio. The row now carries that ratio, 94.6% at end-FY2025/26, an actual outturn. Note the Central Bank attributes part of the recent decline to a GDP rebasing rather than to repayment. In the same pass, eight other rows were moved to the IMF WEO 2026 estimates, which had superseded the 2024 and 2025 figures previously shown. Saint Kitts and Nevis crossed the 60% benchmark as a result, so ten of eleven economies now sit above it rather than nine.

Public debt to GDP

Where each economy sits today.

Latest reported public debt as a share of GDP, sorted highest to lowest. Most rows are the IMF general government series; where a country’s own authority publishes a more current figure on a different coverage basis, that figure is used and the basis is stated on the country card below, so read the cards before comparing two rows closely. The dashed gold line marks the 60 per cent benchmark used by the ECCU and as a working anchor across most of the region. Bars in tide blue sit above the benchmark; bars in gold sit at or below.

60% BENCHMARK30%60%90%120%Saint Vincent and the Grenadines120.1%Dominica98.3%Barbados94.6%Saint Lucia77.5%The Bahamas71.9%Grenada69.0%Trinidad and Tobago67.8%Antigua and Barbuda66.5%Jamaica65.8%Saint Kitts and Nevis64.0%Guyana29.2%

Fiscal position quadrant

Where each economy sits in fiscal space.

A second reading of the data. Public debt to GDP on the vertical axis; primary balance on the horizontal axis. Upper-right is the adjusting zone: high debt, but running a surplus to reduce it. Six of the ten economies with a reported primary balance sit there. The other four run a primary deficit: Trinidad and Tobago, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Grenada. Guyana is not plotted: its primary balance is not published on a single comparable basis.

20%40%60%80%100%120%-4%-2%+0%+2%+4%+6%60% BENCHMARKBALANCEDHIGH DEBT · FISCAL DRAGHIGH DEBT · ADJUSTINGROOM TO ADJUSTFISCAL DISCIPLINEPRIMARY BALANCE (% OF GDP) →↑ PUBLIC DEBT TO GDP (%)BRBBarbadosJAMJamaicaTTOTrinidad and TobagoATGAntigua and BarbudaVCTSaint Vincent and the GrenadinesKNASaint Kitts and NevisBHSThe BahamasDMADominicaGRDGrenada †LCASaint Lucia
Above 60% debt benchmarkPost-shock exception (recovering)Gold band = adjusting zone (high debt, running surpluses)

† Grenada: primary deficit reflects Hurricane Beryl (2024) reconstruction costs. IMF staff project a return to surplus over the medium term.

Primary balance pending next Article IV cycle: Guyana.

Country detail

Eleven economies, in one table.

Each row carries source citations. Where a value is missing in this issue, the row says so explicitly and names the next refresh point. I do not impute figures I have not verified.

Regional aggregate

The Caribbean as a whole.

  • Central govt debt to GDP

    46.6%

    2025 outturn

  • Above 60% of GDP, central govt

    9 countries

    of CDB’s 19 borrowing member countries, 2025 outturn. Not the eleven rows above: on this table’s own figures, ten of eleven sit above 60%.

  • Primary balance, ex-Guyana

    +1.3%

    of GDP, 2025

  • Primary balance, with Guyana

    +0.2%

    of GDP, 2025

Source: Caribbean Development Bank, Caribbean Economic Review and Outlook 2025-2026 (the report itself, not the accompanying news release).

Methodology and cadence.

Public sources only. Primary inputs are the IMF World Economic Outlook database (refreshed April and October), IMF Article IV consultations and programme reviews where current, the Caribbean Development Bank Caribbean Economic Review and Outlook annual report, and the published statistics of national central banks and finance ministries.

Where definitions differ, the tracker uses the IMF series for cross-country comparability and footnotes the alternate national figure where it is materially different. Where a country has an announced medium-term fiscal anchor, proximity to that anchor is shown alongside the absolute level.

Cadence is monthly: every row is re-verified against its primary sources each issue. The IMF World Economic Outlook refreshes twice a year, in April and October, so in most months the figures that move are those from Article IV consultations, national budgets and central bank releases rather than a new WEO vintage. Issue No. 03 follows the August 2026. Between issues, an automated check compares every row against the IMF World Economic Outlook and World Bank series, flagging any divergence and any newer year for review. Nothing is rewritten automatically. Figures change only by hand, against the primary source, and the row's last-verified date moves with them.

I do not impute. I do not estimate. Where a single-year metric is not yet published in the current Article IV cycle, the row says so explicitly and the next refresh point is named. Issue No. 02 covers all 11 economies on the headline debt-to-GDP measure; outstanding metrics will be filled as the next IMF Article IV reports publish. Each row carries the date it was last verified against its primary sources.

License and citation

The Caribbean Debt Tracker is published under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 (CC BY 4.0). Free to read, free to cite, free to reuse with attribution. Cite the dataset version, not just the page.

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