Country profile · Issue No. 05 · October 2026
Antigua and Barbuda.
ATGAntigua and Barbuda's row in the Caribbean Debt Tracker. Five metrics, the stated fiscal anchor, current IMF engagement, and the primary sources behind every figure. Last verified 2026-10-08.
- Debt to GDP
- 66.5%
- Primary balance
- +1.4%
- Real GDP growth
- 2.6%
as of 2026
Public debt stock including principal and interest arrears, unpaid vouchers, suppliers credits and central government guarantees of state enterprises and statutory bodies (IMF Country Report 2026/097, Selected Economic and Financial Indicators, footnotes 2 and 3). This wider measure coincides with the IMF general government series at 66.5% for 2026 but diverges for history: the staff table shows 68.3% for 2025 where the WEO series shows 69.7%, so a reader cross-checking the DataMapper will not find the same number. The Eastern Caribbean Central Bank measures a narrower stock, disbursed outstanding public sector debt, which excludes the arrears and unpaid vouchers counted here. It prints 59.8% for 2025 and 59.6% for 2026 against the Fund's 68.3% and 66.5%. Roughly eight points of Antigua's debt ratio is therefore arrears, which is the same fact the Fund's unsustainability finding rests on.
% of GDP
2026 projection
Two readings
The official figure and the IMF figure, side by side.
Where a second reading of a headline figure exists in print, it is shown here. What the government publishes is the official record. The IMF is an independent view of the same economy. A gap bar is drawn only where the two are measuring the same thing over the same period, so that the distance between the dots is a genuine difference of judgement. Where the measure or the period differs, the figures sit side by side without a bar, and the difference is named instead.
Primary balance
1.4%
This tracker's headline figure.
4.7%
Central government primary balance, calendar 2026, estimate. Published 4 September 2026 (ECCB Economic and Financial Review June 2026, Table 5).
The widest disagreement on this row and one of the widest in the tracker. For the same year and the same measure the regional central bank estimates a primary surplus of 4.7 per cent of GDP and Fund staff project 1.4 per cent. The ECCB is in effect projecting that 2025's strong Citizenship-by-Investment receipts largely persist, and the Fund that they fall away.
Second reading: ECCB, Economic and Financial Review June 2026, Antigua and Barbuda
Debt to GDP
66.5%
This tracker's headline figure.
59.6%
Total public sector debt, disbursed and outstanding, which EXCLUDES the arrears, unpaid vouchers and suppliers credits counted in the headline, calendar 2026, estimate. Published 4 September 2026 (ECCB Economic and Financial Review June 2026, Table 5).
Not a like-for-like gap: the two readings differ in measure: the ECCB counts only disbursed outstanding debt, while the headline adds arrears, unpaid vouchers, suppliers credits and guarantees. No bar is drawn, because the distance between them is not a disagreement.
The gap is the point rather than a nuisance. On the ECCB measure Antigua sits just below the 60 per cent regional benchmark. On the Fund measure it sits six points above it. The difference is almost entirely unpaid obligations, which is why the Fund assesses this debt as unsustainable while the headline ratio falls.
Second reading: ECCB, Economic and Financial Review June 2026, Antigua and Barbuda
Primary balance
1.4%
This tracker's headline figure.
4.0%
Central government primary surplus, printed as 3.97 per cent, calendar 2025, projected outturn at budget time. Published 4 December 2025 (2026 Budget Statement).
Not a like-for-like gap: the two readings differ in period: this is a 2025 figure, and from Issue No. 04 the headline carries the 2026 projection. No bar is drawn, because the distance between them is not a disagreement.
Retained for continuity. Through Issue No. 03 this was a comparable pair against a headline of 4.9 for 2025. The headline now carries 2026, so the flag has been re-judged rather than left standing. Against the 2025 estimate it remains a vintage story: the Government projected 3.97 in December with the year nearly closed, and the Fund put the same year at 4.9 five months later with full-year information.
Second reading: Antigua and Barbuda 2026 Budget Statement
Fiscal anchor
ECCU regional benchmark: public debt to 60% of GDP by 2035.
IMF programme status
No active programme, Article IV surveillance
Notes
ISSUE No. 05: checked, no figure moved. No IMF, Eastern Caribbean Central Bank or Ministry of Finance publication on Antigua and Barbuda dated between 8 September and 8 October 2026 was found. The ECCB's newest country releases are still the Economic and Financial Reviews of 4 September 2026. ISSUE No. 04 CORRECTION. The primary balance on this row moves from 4.9% to 1.4% of GDP. Both figures are printed in the same table, Selected Economic and Financial Indicators in IMF Country Report 2026/097, read from the rendered page: the row reads -2.3, -0.3, 0.5, 4.0 and 4.9 across 2021 to 2025, then 1.4, 0.9 and 1.0 for 2026, 2027 and 2028, with 2025 marked Est. and 2026 onwards marked Projections. The debt figure (66.5%) and the growth figure (2.6%) on this row have both been dated 2026 since Issue No. 01, so carrying 4.9 put a 2025 estimate beside two 2026 projections. That is the defect the Issue No. 02 sweep was written to catch, and Antigua was not among the four rows it caught. The 4.9% figure remains correct for 2025 and is discussed below. The Eastern Caribbean Central Bank, publishing on 4 September 2026, is far more optimistic for the same year: it estimates a 2026 primary surplus of 4.7% of GDP, and 6.1% for 2025 where the Fund has 4.9%. Earlier context follows, and the paragraph below describes the 2025 position. The IMF staff DSA assesses public debt here as UNSUSTAINABLE: the large stock of arrears to Paris Club and domestic creditors is not projected to be cleared under the baseline within the projection horizon, gross financing needs are elevated, and if those needs are not met new arrears are likely to accumulate over the medium term. The Board called for additional reforms to restore debt sustainability. Against that, the headline ratios improve: figures from the 2026 Article IV Country Report (PR 26/142, Selected Economic and Financial Indicators table) confirm public debt at 68.3% of GDP in 2025, down from 69.3% in 2024, with the ratio projected to fall to 66.5% in 2026 and to 58.4% by 2031 (below the ECCU 60% benchmark). The 2025 central government primary balance is estimated at 4.9% of GDP, up from 4.0% in 2024, underpinned by stronger Citizenship-by-Investment Programme inflows, higher tax revenue, restraint in current spending, and a modest rise in capital spending. Staff project the primary balance to moderate to 1.4% in 2026 and around 1.0% over the medium term. Real GDP grew 3.0% in 2025 (from 2.5% in 2024), with 2026 growth projected at 2.6% and the medium-term potential rate near 2½%. Inflation moderated from 6.2% (2024 average) to 1.4% in 2025. Persistent arrears to Paris Club creditors and domestic suppliers and elevated gross financing needs continue to constrain debt sustainability, and the Executive Board urged the authorities to develop and implement a full arrears strategy.
Sources
Last verified · 2026-10-08
- IMF Country Report, Antigua and Barbuda 2026 Article IV Consultation Press Release, Staff Report, and Statement by the Executive Director, 12 May 2026
- IMF Press Release 26/142, Antigua and Barbuda Article IV, 7 May 2026
- IMF Staff Concluding Statement, Antigua and Barbuda Article IV, 2 February 2026
- IMF Press Release 25/067, Antigua and Barbuda Article IV, 17 March 2025
- IMF Country Report 2026/097, Antigua and Barbuda 2026 Article IV Consultation, Selected Economic and Financial Indicators (source of the 1.4% 2026 primary balance projection and the 4.9% 2025 estimate it replaces)
- Eastern Caribbean Central Bank, Economic and Financial Review June 2026, Antigua and Barbuda, published 4 September 2026
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