Grenada.

Fiscal anchor

Fiscal Resilience Act (No. 11 of 2023): public sector debt to 60% of GDP by 2035 (aligned with the ECCU benchmark), a central government primary balance floor of 1.5% of GDP, and a wage bill ceiling of 13% of GDP. The debt target and primary balance rule have been SUSPENDED since 2024 under the Beryl escape clause and remain suspended through 2026. Return to the 1.5% floor is anticipated from 2027.

IMF programme status

No active programme, surveillance only

Notes

ISSUE No. 05: checked, no figure moved. No IMF, Eastern Caribbean Central Bank or Ministry of Finance publication on Grenada dated between 8 September and 8 October 2026 was found. Watch for the 2026 Article IV mission: the 2025 staff concluding statement was issued on 29 October 2025, so a statement this month would keep the cycle on time. ISSUE No. 04 UPDATE. No headline figure moved, but Grenada now has three authors publishing three different 2026 primary balances, which is the widest spread in this tracker. The headline carries the Government's own Medium-Term Fiscal Framework at a deficit of 7.9% of GDP. Fund staff projected 3.5% in January. The Eastern Caribbean Central Bank, publishing on 4 September 2026, sits between them at 5.2%, attributing the deterioration to a record level of public sector investment in 2026 alongside only moderate growth in tax revenue and CBI flows, and forecasting a return to a primary surplus of 1.6% in 2027. The same ECCB report also revises 2025 substantially: the primary deficit for 2025 is now put at 1.6% of GDP against an earlier estimate of 6.6%, and the overall deficit at 5.2% against 7.9%, so the year closed far better than first thought. It puts total public sector debt at 73.4% of GDP at end-2025, down 1.7 points on the year, and notes that this measure includes PetroCaribe debt worth 9.6% of GDP in 2026, which the WEO general government series in the headline does not. Earlier context follows. Strong CBI revenues delivered large primary surpluses in 2023 and 2024, 9.4% and 10.0% of GDP, and brought public debt including state enterprises and statutory bodies down to 74.5% in 2023 and 72.7% in 2024. Hurricane Beryl (July 2024) damaged Carriacou, Petite Martinique and northern parishes by more than 16% of GDP, prompting a temporary suspension of the fiscal rules. The primary balance swung to a deficit of 3.2% of GDP in 2025. ISSUE No. 03 UPDATE: the figure this row carries is now a deficit of 7.9% of GDP for 2026, more than double what was published through Issues 01 and 02. It comes from the Government of Grenada Medium-Term Fiscal Framework 2027-2029 (Table 14, page 50, published 7 August 2026), which projects a central government primary balance INCLUDING grants of minus EC$332.0 million against nominal GDP of EC$4,231.1 million. Excluding grants the same table gives minus 8.8%, and the overall balance minus 9.7%. Read the table with care: its columns run 2027, 2028, 2029 and then 2026, so the 2026 column is LAST rather than first, and a left-to-right reading returns the wrong year. This figure supersedes the IMF staff projection of minus 3.5% because it is both more recent and the authorities own framework, but note that it is the government projecting its own budget rather than Fund staff assessing it. Growth for 2026 in the same table is 3.3%, marginally above the 3.1% in the April 2026 WEO. Growth accelerated to 4.4% in 2025 from 3.3% in 2024, was projected by Fund staff in January at 3.2% for 2026 (the headline now carries the MTFF 3.3%), moderating toward a 2.7% potential rate by 2029. Public debt falls to 65.8% in 2026 but then edges back up through 2030 on the staff baseline. The 60% target is projected to be reached by 2033 only on the condition that the 1.5%-of-GDP central government primary balance floor is restored from 2027. It is not a projection of the current unsuspended path.