Barbados.

Fiscal anchor

Public debt to 60% of GDP by FY2035/36 (BERT 2026, reaffirmed under the 36-month precautionary SBA approved by the IMF Executive Board on 22 June 2026). Primary surplus 4.1% of GDP target for FY2026/27 (Central Bank of Barbados, April 2026 outlook), tapering thereafter.

IMF programme status

Precautionary SBA approved by the IMF Executive Board 22 June 2026 (SDR 189m / US$257m, 200% of quota, 36 months). 2026 Article IV consultation concluded concurrently (PR 26/219)

Notes

ISSUE No. 05: checked, no figure moved. Between 8 September and 8 October 2026 the Central Bank of Barbados published no economic review or outlook. Its news listing in that period carries Treasury Bill notices, payment-system notices and Statements of Condition, none of which bears on debt, the primary balance or growth. The January to September 2026 review appears on the Bank's events calendar for the 28th and is expected at the end of October, on the pattern of the two preceding reviews. No staff-level agreement or Board document on the first review of the precautionary Stand-By Arrangement was found. CORRECTION, 24 September 2026. The primary balance on this row moves from a surplus of 4.2% of GDP to 3.5%. Both figures come from the same table, Table 1 of IMF Press Release 26/219 (22 June 2026), whose fiscal columns run April to March. 4.2 is the FY2025/26 estimated outturn and 3.5 is the FY2026/27 projection. The debt figure beside it is an end-June 2026 outturn and growth is for 2026, so the row was carrying the balance for the previous fiscal year. Jamaica, also on an April to March fiscal year, carries FY2026/27. The FY2025/26 figure of 4.2% stays on record in this note and in the corrections log. Debt and growth did not move. Earlier context follows, and where it gives 4.2% it describes FY2025/26. ISSUE No. 04: checked, no figure moved. The Central Bank of Barbados published nothing between 8 August and 8 September 2026 that bears on debt, the primary balance or growth. Its 2025 Financial Stability Report appeared on 10 August 2026 but is a financial-system publication and carries no revision to the fiscal series. The next quarterly review, covering January to September 2026, is expected around the end of October, on the pattern of the two preceding reviews in this series (January to March published 29 April 2026, January to June published 30 July 2026). Issue No. 03 context follows. ISSUE No. 03 UPDATE. The headline is now 93.7% at end-June 2026, from the Central Bank of Barbados Review of the Barbados Economy January to June 2026 (30 July 2026), which puts gross public sector debt at BDS$15.1 billion, about US$7.6 billion. The same review revised its own end-FY2025/26 comparator from 94.6% to 94.8%, so the figure this tracker and the Bridgetown Brief carried from April to August is superseded on both counts. The revision is a GDP denominator change rather than a debt increase. Growth moves from 2.2% to approximately 2%: the Bank cut its 2026 projection on 31 July 2026 to the lower end of its previous 2 to 3 per cent range, which supersedes the 2.2% the IMF projected in June, though the Bank states it as an approximation rather than a point estimate. The primary balance of 4.2% of GDP for FY2025/26 is unchanged and was corroborated by the July review. Earlier context follows. The previous headline (94.6%, end-FY2025/26) was reported in the Review of the Barbados Economy January to March 2026 (29 April 2026) as a 2.7 percentage point fall over the financial year. It replaced the 102.5% gross public sector figure from IMF Country Report 25/153 that this row previously led with: that number was both a year stale and roughly eight points above every current published series, which made this tracker disagree with its own Briefs. For reference the IMF WEO general government series projects 89.5% for 2026 and showed 94.2% for 2025. Note that the CBoB attributes part of the recent decline to a GDP rebasing rather than to repayment, so comparisons against pre-2025 figures (109.8% at end-2023, 103% during FY2024/25) cross a methodology break and overstate the underlying improvement. The primary balance figure 4.2% is the FY2025/26 estimated outturn reported by IMF Press Release 26/151 (14 May 2026), against 4.0% reported by the Central Bank of Barbados, a definitional gap between the two authors (Review of the Barbados Economy, January to March 2026, 29 April 2026) and from the 4.4% target previously cited in BERT 2026 and IMF Country Report 25/153. The Government targets 4.1% in FY2026/27 per the CBoB April 2026 Outlook. Real GDP expanded 1.7% in Q1 2026 and 2026 growth is projected within a 2 to 3 per cent range by the CBoB. The April 2026 WEO projected 2.5% for 2026, which the June 2026 Article IV staff projection revised down to 2.2%, while IMF Press Release 26/151 reports a 2025 outturn of 2.7% and characterises 2026 growth qualitatively as positive but at a more moderate rate. The IMF Article IV mission was in country from 4-14 May 2026 (led by Mission Chief Michael Perks) and concluded with a staff-level agreement on a 36-month precautionary Stand-By Arrangement of SDR 189 million (~US$260 million), to be considered by the IMF Executive Board in June 2026. On 22 June 2026 the IMF Executive Board approved the 36-month precautionary Stand-By Arrangement (SDR 189 million, US$257 million, 200% of quota) and concluded the 2026 Article IV consultation (Press Release 26/219). The approval reaffirmed strong fiscal performance with a primary surplus of 4.2% of GDP in FY2025/26, real GDP growth of 2.7% in 2025, public sector debt at 96.0% of GDP in FY2025/26 on a firm downward path, and the commitment to the 60%-of-GDP debt target by FY2035/36.