Dominica.

Fiscal anchor

National Fiscal Rule: minimum primary surplus of 2% of GDP from FY2026/27, maintained until debt falls below 60% of GDP, plus the ECCU benchmark of 60% by 2035 and a Disaster Resilience Strategy target of 12% of GDP in contingent self-insurance.

IMF programme status

Surveillance only, no active IMF financing arrangement. Outstanding credit is SDR 8.22m of RCF loans (71.5% of quota) from past disaster and pandemic disbursements. No RSF/RST entry appears in the Fund's financial position for Dominica.

Notes

ISSUE No. 05: checked, no figure moved. No IMF, Eastern Caribbean Central Bank or Ministry of Finance publication on Dominica dated between 8 September and 8 October 2026 was found. ISSUE No. 04 UPDATE. No headline figure moved, and the reason is a period mismatch that has to be stated rather than papered over. The Eastern Caribbean Central Bank published its Economic and Financial Review June 2026 on 4 September 2026 and reports Dominica on CALENDAR years, where this row is on the July-to-June fiscal year, so its figures are not a like-for-like second reading and are recorded here rather than as a second reading. The ECCB puts total public sector debt at 98.2% of GDP at end-2025 and projects 100.0% for 2026, with the ratio then falling to 66.8% by 2035, short of the 60% regional anchor. Note the trap: its 98.2% for calendar 2025 sits within a tenth of a point of the 98.3% this row carries for FY2026/27, and the two are neither the same measure nor the same period. The ECCB reports a 2025 primary deficit of 1.5% of GDP ($79.3m), expects the fiscal position to remain in deficit in 2026 before reaching a primary surplus of 2.0% in 2027 as the fiscal rule takes effect, and judges from its debt sustainability analysis that a primary balance of around 2.8% of GDP is needed to put debt firmly on a downward path, against an average of -2.2% over the past five years. It also expects real GDP growth to moderate to 3.0% across 2026-27, against the 3.1% for 2026 in the headline. The ECCB additionally published a summary of Dominica's 2026 budget on 25 August 2026. Earlier context follows. Public debt has steadily declined from its pandemic peak (118.4% in FY2020/21) but remains elevated at 108.2% of GDP in 2024 per the IMF WEO April 2026. The 2026 Article IV Staff Concluding Statement (27 March 2026) reports central government debt incl. guaranteed at 108.2% of GDP for FY2024/25, falling to an estimated 102.6% in FY2025/26, with a baseline trajectory declining to around 70% by 2035 on current policies, still well above the 60% regional benchmark. Growth accelerated to 4.5% in 2025 from 3.5% in 2024, supported by strong tourism (36% above pre-pandemic levels) and infrastructure investment. Staff project growth to average 3.0% in 2026-27 before easing toward 2% as construction winds down. The 2026 staff statement reports the central government primary balance widened to a deficit of 4½% of GDP in FY2024/25 and is estimated to swing to a surplus of 0.7% of GDP in FY2025/26, rising gradually toward 2% by FY2030/31. Staff judge that reaching and sustaining a primary surplus of 3.4% of GDP from FY2027/28 (an additional consolidation of roughly EC$60 million phased over two years) is required to meet the fiscal rule and the disaster self-insurance buffer. Fund staff project a primary surplus of 1.0% of GDP for FY2026/27 on the same table and basis as the debt figure on this row. That projection is retained as the second reading, while the headline carries the Government's own 2.2% (see the correction below). Note the fiscal year runs July to June, so the 2026 column is FY2026/27, which began on 1 July 2026. Overall debt-distress risk assessed as high. The IMF Executive Board concluded the 2026 Article IV consultation on 27 May 2026 and the full staff report was published as IMF Country Report No. 26/117 (29 May 2026), which confirms the figures reported in the 27 March 2026 staff concluding statement above. The 1.0% second reading is taken from that same table and basis. Both the debt and primary balance figures on this row are central government on a July-to-June fiscal year, so neither is directly comparable to the calendar-year general-government series used for most other rows in this Tracker. See the coverage note above. ISSUE No. 03, CORRECTED SAME DAY: the headline primary balance now carries 2.2% for FY2026/27, from the Budget Address 2026/2027 of 6 August 2026, which PRINTS the figure on page 4: Government commits to an annual primary surplus of at least 2.0 percent of GDP until the debt-to-GDP ratio declines to 60 percent, and the current Estimates project a surplus of 2.2 percent. An earlier version of this note claimed the Address does not print a primary balance and held the headline at the IMF projection of 1.0%. That claim was wrong: it rested on the Address PDF being unreachable by script, and absence of access was mistaken for absence of print. The rendered page settles it. The same page 3 prints the debt ratio at 99.5% at 30 June 2026, an outturn 3.1 points below the 102.6% the Fund had estimated for that date in May, and a FY2025/26 primary surplus outturn of 1.8%, which the Address notes is 0.8 points above projection. The IMF projection of 1.0% for FY2026/27 is retained as a second reading. A national budget projecting a stronger primary surplus than Fund staff is a normal pattern, not an error.