Dominica.

Fiscal anchor

National Fiscal Rule: minimum primary surplus of 2% of GDP from FY2026/27, maintained until debt falls below 60% of GDP; plus the ECCU benchmark of 60% by 2035 and a Disaster Resilience Strategy target of 12% of GDP in contingent self-insurance.

IMF programme status

Surveillance only; no active IMF financing arrangement. Outstanding credit is SDR 8.22m of RCF loans (71.5% of quota) from past disaster and pandemic disbursements. No RSF/RST entry appears in the Fund's financial position for Dominica.

Notes

Public debt has steadily declined from its pandemic peak (118.4% in FY2020/21) but remains elevated at 108.2% of GDP in 2024 per the IMF WEO April 2026. The 2026 Article IV Staff Concluding Statement (27 March 2026) reports central government debt incl. guaranteed at 108.2% of GDP for FY2024/25, falling to an estimated 102.6% in FY2025/26, with a baseline trajectory declining to around 70% by 2035 on current policies, still well above the 60% regional benchmark. Growth accelerated to 4.5% in 2025 from 3.5% in 2024, supported by robust tourism (36% above pre-pandemic levels) and infrastructure investment; staff project growth to average 3.0% in 2026-27 before easing toward 2% as construction winds down. The 2026 staff statement reports the central government primary balance widened to a deficit of 4½% of GDP in FY2024/25 and is estimated to swing to a surplus of 0.7% of GDP in FY2025/26, rising gradually toward 2% by FY2030/31. Staff judge that reaching and sustaining a primary surplus of 3.4% of GDP from FY2027/28 (an additional consolidation of roughly EC$60 million phased over two years) is required to meet the fiscal rule and the disaster self-insurance buffer. The headline primaryBalance field carries 1.0% for FY2026/27, the same table and basis as the debt figure on this row. Note the fiscal year runs July to June, so the 2026 column is FY2026/27, which began on 1 July 2026. Overall debt-distress risk assessed as high. The IMF Executive Board concluded the 2026 Article IV consultation on 27 May 2026 and the full staff report was published as IMF Country Report No. 26/117 (29 May 2026), which confirms the figures reported in the 27 March 2026 staff concluding statement above; the headline primaryBalance field is populated from that same table and basis. Both the debt and primary balance figures on this row are central government on a July-to-June fiscal year, so neither is directly comparable to the calendar-year general-government series used for most other rows in this Tracker; see debtBasis.