Dominica.

Fiscal anchor

ECCU regional benchmark: public debt to 60% of GDP by 2035.

IMF programme status

RST and surveillance only

Notes

Public debt has steadily declined from its pandemic peak (118.4% in FY2020/21) but remains elevated at 108.2% of GDP in 2024 per the IMF WEO April 2026. The 2026 Article IV Staff Concluding Statement (27 March 2026) reports central government debt incl. guaranteed at 108.2% of GDP for FY2024/25, falling to an estimated 102.6% in FY2025/26, with a baseline trajectory declining to around 70% by 2035 on current policies, still well above the 60% regional benchmark. Growth accelerated to 4.5% in 2025 from 3.5% in 2024, supported by robust tourism (36% above pre-pandemic levels) and infrastructure investment; staff project growth to average 3.0% in 2026-27 before easing toward 2% as construction winds down. The 2026 staff statement reports the central government primary balance widened to a deficit of 4½% of GDP in FY2024/25 and is estimated to swing to a surplus of 0.7% of GDP in FY2025/26, rising gradually toward 2% by FY2030/31. Staff judge that reaching and sustaining a primary surplus of 3.4% of GDP from FY2027/28 (an additional consolidation of roughly EC$60 million phased over two years) is required to meet the fiscal rule and the disaster self-insurance buffer. The headline primary balance field is kept null pending the full staff report because the available figures are on a fiscal-year and central-government basis, not directly comparable to the calendar-year general-government series used elsewhere in this Tracker. Overall debt-distress risk assessed as high.