Jamaica.

Fiscal anchor

Public debt to 60% of GDP by FY2027/28 (Public Debt Management Act); primary surplus floor under the Fiscal Responsibility Law.

IMF programme status

No active programme; PLL precautionary line history

Notes

IMF staff project a primary surplus of 5.2% of GDP for FY2025/26 (May 2025 Article IV), which on the pre-storm trajectory would have brought public debt toward 65% of GDP by year-end, the lowest level in 25 years. Hurricane Melissa (Category 5, October 2025), with reconstruction costs estimated near 41% of GDP, reset the trajectory: the IMF World Economic Outlook (April 2026) now puts general government debt at 65.8% of GDP in 2026 and projects real GDP to contract by 1.2% in 2026 (from a positive 2025) before returning to growth. The Government of Jamaica Fiscal Policy Paper FY2026/27 (As Passed, February 2026) reports on a fiscal-year and central-government basis: debt stock 62.4% of GDP in FY2024/25 (actual), 68.9% in FY2025/26 (estimated outturn), and 65.7% in FY2026/27 (projection), with a central government primary balance of 5.4%, 1.3%, and 0.5% of GDP across the same years; the real economy is now estimated to contract by 4.5% in FY2025/26 on Hurricane Melissa effects. The headline figures in this Tracker remain on the IMF WEO April 2026 calendar-year general-government basis for cross-country comparability; the FY-basis figures are footnoted here. The earlier IMF F&D commentary projected debt nearer 68%; the WEO figure is the more current and is used as the headline.