Jamaica.

Fiscal anchor

Public debt to 60% of GDP, legislated in Part VII of the Financial Administration and Audit Act, originally by end-March 2028. The fiscal rules were SUSPENDED in December 2025 under FRL Article 48C after Hurricane Melissa and remain suspended to end-March 2027; the Government states an intention of 60% by end-FY2029/30, but no new timeline has been legislated.

IMF programme status

No active arrangement. The Precautionary and Liquidity Line expired 28 February 2025 and the RSF concluded September 2024. A Rapid Financing Instrument purchase of SDR 306.32m (US$415m, 80% of quota) was approved 16 January 2026 under the large natural disaster window (PR 26/008) after Hurricane Melissa: an outright purchase, not a programme, with no reviews or conditionality.

Notes

The primary balance shown, 0.5% of GDP, is the FY2026/27 projection in Table 3J of the Fiscal Policy Paper FY2026/27 (As Passed, February 2026), on a central government fiscal year basis. The full series there reads 5.2% in FY2023/24 (actual), 5.4% in FY2024/25 (provisional), 1.3% in FY2025/26 (estimate) and 0.5% in FY2026/27, so what looks like a collapse in the surplus is Hurricane Melissa passing through the accounts rather than a change of fiscal stance. Before the storm, IMF staff had projected a surplus above 5% of GDP sustained through FY2025/26, which would have brought public debt toward 65% of GDP, the lowest in 25 years. Hurricane Melissa (Category 5, October 2025), with reconstruction costs estimated near 41% of GDP, reset the trajectory: the IMF World Economic Outlook (April 2026) now puts general government debt at 65.8% of GDP in 2026 and projects real GDP to contract by 1.2% in 2026 (from a positive 2025) before returning to growth. The Government of Jamaica Fiscal Policy Paper FY2026/27 (As Passed, February 2026) reports on a fiscal-year and central-government basis: debt stock 62.4% of GDP in FY2024/25 (actual), 68.9% in FY2025/26 (estimated outturn), and 65.7% in FY2026/27 (projection), with a central government primary balance of 5.4%, 1.3%, and 0.5% of GDP across the same years; the real economy is now estimated to contract by 4.5% in FY2025/26 on Hurricane Melissa effects. The headline figures in this Tracker remain on the IMF WEO April 2026 calendar-year general-government basis for cross-country comparability; the FY-basis figures are footnoted here. The earlier IMF F&D commentary projected debt nearer 68%; the WEO figure is the more current and is used as the headline.